Ohio State goes back to Kinnick Stadium this weekend. The last time the Buckeyes played there, Iowa won 55-24 in 2017. That night still hangs over this matchup.
This is not that team. Iowa is 4-0 after a last-second 20-19 win at Michigan. Ohio State is 3-1 and bringing Jeremiah Smith, the best receiver in the country.
Here is what actually decides it: why Ohio State should win, and the exact path Iowa still has.
First, remember why Iowa won in 2017
It was not magic. It was a checklist.
- J.T. Barrett threw four interceptions, including a pick-six eight seconds in
- Iowa scored 17 points off turnovers
- Nate Stanley threw five touchdowns, many to tight ends T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant
- Iowa ran for 243 yards and passed for 244
- Ohio State scored seven points after halftime
Kinnick was loud. Ohio State lost the ball and lost its nerve. That is the tape Iowa wants this game to look like again.
Ohio State has beaten Iowa since then — 54-10 in 2022 and 35-7 in 2024 — but both were in Columbus. Saturday is on the road.
What you need to know about Ohio State’s chance to win
Ohio State should be the better team. The win comes down to four things.
1. Jeremiah Smith forces Iowa out of its comfort zone
Smith just went 12 catches, 217 yards, and four touchdowns against Illinois. Iowa’s defense leads the nation in scoring defense at 8.0 points per game. That number has not faced a receiver like this.
Iowa will bracket him. That is expected. Ohio State’s chance grows if Julian Sayin does not panic. Use Smith as a decoy. Hit the tight end, the opposite sideline, and the checkdown. Then come back to Smith on the fade. If Smith gets roughly eight catches and a score, Iowa is in trouble.
2. Don’t repeat 2017 at quarterback
Sayin has been clean. Kinnick is where clean quarterbacks get greedy. One forced ball into double coverage is how a 10-point favorite becomes a one-score game. Protect the football and Ohio State controls this.
3. Stop the run and the tight end
Illinois ran for nearly 200 yards on Ohio State. Iowa will try the same plan: run, play-action, tight ends in the seams. If the Buckeyes tackle better than they did last week, Iowa’s offense stays stuck in the 2017-memory, 2026-reality gap. Iowa is not exploding for 55 this year. It needs long drives and Buckeye mistakes.
4. Finish drives
Iowa lives on field position and three-and-outs. Field goals in Kinnick feel like losses. Touchdowns change the crowd. Ohio State wins this game by scoring enough that Iowa has to abandon the grind.
The Buckeye path in one line: no turnovers, Smith involved without being forced, and a defense that does not let Iowa run the clock.
The possibility of Iowa beating Ohio State
Iowa does not need to be better for 60 minutes. It needs the game to look like Iowa.
1. The defense is still the same program
Kirk Ferentz and Phil Parker are still there. That pairing is why ranked teams leave Kinnick uneasy. Iowa is giving up about 240 yards a game. Cam Buffington runs the defense. Zach Lutmer and Deshaun Lee just helped steal a game at Michigan. They will not erase Smith. They can make everyone else beat them.
2. Home field still matters
2017 was a blackout and a collapse. 2026 Iowa just won at the Big House on the final play — Hank Brown to Reece Vander Zee as time expired. That locker room believes it can finish another ranked team. The crowd will treat every Ohio State three-and-out like a lead change.
3. Iowa’s offense only needs to be good enough
Brown is not Nate Stanley from that 55-point night. He does not have to be. Iowa was outgained at Michigan and still won. A 99-yard kickoff return kept them alive. One takeaway and one red-zone stand can keep this in the 20s. In Kinnick, that is a real game.
4. Ohio State’s defense left the door open
The Buckeyes allowed 462 yards to Illinois. If that shows up again, Iowa can stay on schedule. Stay on schedule, and the fourth quarter becomes a coin flip.
The Hawkeye path in one line: keep it tight, take the ball away once, and make Ohio State beat a loaded box without turning it over.
Side by side
| If this happens | Who it helps |
|---|---|
| Sayin throws a pick in the first half | Iowa |
| Smith gets doubled and the other receivers eat | Ohio State |
| Iowa runs for 180+ yards | Iowa |
| Ohio State scores TDs instead of field goals | Ohio State |
| The game is one score in the fourth | Iowa’s chance spikes |
| Ohio State leads by 14 after three quarters | Iowa’s upset path shrinks |
What fans are saying
Ohio State fans
“2017 was turnovers, not Kinnick ghosts. Don’t give Iowa the ball and we win.”
“Smith is the best player on the field. Parker can scheme. He can’t clone a second Smith.”
“The only way we lose is if the defense tackles like it did against Illinois.”
Iowa fans
“We don’t need 55. We need 24, two takeaways, and four quarters of Kinnick.”
“Double Smith. Make the other guys prove it. That’s how you beat stars here.”
“Michigan had us dead. We still scored at zero. Don’t tell me we can’t hang for one night.”
The honest middle
“Ohio State should win. Iowa can win. Both things have been true every time this series gets loud.”
Bottom line
Ohio State stands a clear chance because of talent, Smith, and a quarterback who has not beaten himself. That is the favorite’s path: clean football on the road.
Iowa stands a real chance because of defense, home field, and a team that just showed it can finish a ranked opponent. That is the upset path: stay close and wait for one Buckeye mistake.
2017 is the warning. Saturday is about whether Ohio State treats it like history — or lets it become a sequel.
Discover more from Allsportsreports
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
