Michigan (4-3, 1-3 Big Ten) travels to Rutgers on Saturday, October 31, for a noon ET kickoff at SHI Stadium. The Wolverines are favored by roughly 14.5 points against a 2-5 Rutgers team that has struggled defensively, but the matchup arrives after Michigan’s 13-6 overtime home loss to Indiana. That game exposed the same offensive problems that have limited the Wolverines for most of the season. Defense held Indiana without a touchdown in regulation, yet Michigan managed only six points and failed to reach the end zone despite multiple red-zone opportunities.
The Rutgers game offers a chance to correct those issues against a softer opponent. Rutgers allows more than 37 points per game and ranks near the bottom of the FBS in several defensive categories. Still, Michigan’s offense has averaged only 20.3 points per game and has scored 21 points or fewer in five of its seven contests. Five specific areas stand out as priorities before Saturday.
1. Red-Zone Efficiency
Against Indiana, Michigan reached the red zone four times and scored zero touchdowns. Field goals kept the game close, but the inability to finish drives proved decisive in overtime. Tommy Carr, in his first career start, completed 20 of 32 passes for 167 yards with one interception and a lost fumble on a backward lateral. Several third-down calls near the goal line produced little or no yardage, including a play-action attempt that resulted in a sack. Rutgers’ defense has allowed opponents to score in the red zone at a high rate this season. Converting even two of those opportunities into touchdowns would shift the margin of error significantly for Michigan.
2. Run Game Production
Michigan gained only 57 rushing yards on 42 attempts against Indiana. Jordan Marshall and Savion Hiter combined for 41 yards on 22 carries. The offensive line allowed 10 tackles for loss and four sacks. Perimeter runs have been particularly unproductive for much of the year; Michigan’s overall rushing average sits at 3.7 yards per carry. Rutgers allows six yards per rush, one of the higher marks in the country. Establishing a functional ground game would reduce the burden on Carr and create more manageable third-down situations. The offensive line’s ability to create consistent push will determine whether that happens on the road.
3. Quarterback Decision-Making and Protection
Carr provided a spark in the second half of the Penn State win, but his first start against a ranked defense included multiple turnovers and limited explosive plays. Only one of his 32 passes gained more than 20 yards. Bryce Underwood remains on the roster after being benched, but the staff has committed to Carr for the immediate future. Protection remains an issue—Michigan has allowed 13 sacks through seven games. Rutgers’ pass rush is not elite, yet Carr will still face pressure if the line continues to struggle. Reducing negative plays and avoiding the type of interceptions that led to Indiana points will be essential.
4. Third-Down Conversion Rate
Michigan converted only 6 of 20 third downs against Indiana. That rate has hovered near 38 percent for the season. Many of those failures occurred on short-yardage or medium-distance situations where the run game or short passing concepts failed to move the chains. Rutgers’ defense ranks among the least effective in the conference at getting off the field, but Michigan cannot rely solely on that. Sustaining drives longer than three or four plays will keep the defense fresher and limit Rutgers’ opportunities to generate momentum through turnovers or special teams.
5. Explosive Play Generation
The Wolverines rank near the bottom of the Power Four in passing yards per game (approximately 166). Wide receivers, led by J.J. Buchanan, have had limited opportunities to create yards after the catch because the offense has operated in condensed spaces against loaded boxes. Against Rutgers, which allows more than 245 passing yards per game, Michigan should be able to generate at least one or two explosive gains through the air or on the ground. Those plays have been rare this season and would ease the pressure created by repeated three-and-outs.
Michigan’s defense continues to rank among the top units nationally in yards and points allowed. That side of the ball does not require major changes. The offense, however, has been the consistent limiting factor. Rutgers presents a favorable matchup on paper, yet the same issues that produced only six points against Indiana could reappear if they are not addressed. Improving red-zone finishing, establishing a baseline run game, protecting Carr, converting on third down, and creating explosive plays are the five concrete adjustments that would give Michigan its best chance to leave Piscataway with a win and some measurable progress heading into the final stretch of the regular season.
