No. 2 Ohio State travels to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on October 31 to face USC in a prime-time Big Ten matchup. The Buckeyes enter at 6-1 and remain unbeaten in conference play, while the Trojans sit at 6-2 after a 24-7 loss at Wisconsin. Ohio State is favored by roughly 6.5 to 7 points, but the game carries several variables that could narrow the margin, including Ohio State’s quarterback situation, USC’s explosive passing attack, and the road environment. These five matchups stand out as the ones most likely to shape the outcome.
1. Ohio State’s Quarterback Uncertainty vs. USC’s Secondary
Julian Sayin is out indefinitely after suffering an injury to his throwing arm in the fourth quarter of Ohio State’s 19-15 win at Indiana. Coach Ryan Day has said the Buckeyes are planning for the possibility that Sayin misses the remainder of the regular season and potentially the postseason. True freshman Luke Fahey stepped in late against Indiana and has been the primary backup, while sophomore Tavien St. Clair is also expected to receive first-team reps. Day has indicated the staff will play the quarterback who gives the team the best chance to win.
Sayin had completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 2,007 yards, 19 touchdowns, and four interceptions through seven games. His absence shifts the offense toward a less experienced signal-caller for a night game at USC. Fahey has shown efficiency in limited action, but he will face a USC defense that has been inconsistent. The Trojans allow about 216 passing yards per game and rank outside the top 70 nationally in pass defense. How effectively Ohio State’s new quarterback distributes the ball to Jeremiah Smith and the rest of the receiving corps will influence whether the Buckeyes can sustain drives or are forced into shorter, more conservative possessions.
2. USC’s Passing Attack vs. Ohio State’s Secondary
Jayden Maiava has been the engine of USC’s offense. He has thrown for more than 2,300 yards with 19 touchdowns and a completion percentage near 67 percent. The Trojans average over 300 passing yards per game and rank among the top 10 nationally in that category. Weapons include Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, who has emerged as a productive receiver, along with other targets who have given Maiava multiple options.
Ohio State’s defense ranks near the top of the country in several key areas. The Buckeyes allow just 13.4 points per game and roughly 171 passing yards per contest. They held Indiana to limited production for long stretches and have been strong against both the run and the pass overall. Containing Maiava will require disciplined coverage and consistent pressure. If Ohio State’s front can limit time in the pocket, the secondary has a better chance of disrupting timing routes. If Maiava finds space, USC’s vertical threats can create explosive plays that keep the game close.
3. Ohio State’s Running Game vs. USC’s Front Seven
Bo Jackson has been a steady contributor for Ohio State, averaging solid yards per carry and providing balance when the passing game is efficient. The Buckeyes average about 153 rushing yards per game, though they have not always leaned heavily on the ground attack. Against a USC defense that has been better against the run than the pass in some stretches, establishing the ground game becomes more important with a less experienced quarterback.
USC’s defensive front has playmakers, including contributors who generate tackles for loss and sacks. If Ohio State can create consistent running lanes, it opens play-action opportunities and reduces the burden on the quarterback. Conversely, if the Trojans’ front seven stacks the box and forces third-and-long situations, Fahey or St. Clair will face more difficult throws in a loud stadium. The ability to run on early downs will help determine whether Ohio State controls tempo or plays from behind the chains.
4. Ohio State’s Pass Rush vs. Maiava’s Protection
Ohio State’s defense has generated pressure throughout the season, ranking among the better units nationally in limiting opponent scoring and total yards. Generating sacks or hurries against Maiava can disrupt USC’s timing and force incomplete passes or negative plays. Maiava has been sacked at a relatively low rate, but Ohio State’s front has the talent to challenge that protection.
USC’s offensive line has supported a high-volume passing attack, yet the Trojans’ recent loss at Wisconsin showed vulnerability when the run game is stalled and the quarterback faces consistent pressure. If Ohio State’s edge rushers and interior linemen win early, it can limit Maiava’s ability to work through progressions and connect with his receivers downfield. This matchup directly affects how many explosive plays USC can generate.
5. The Road Environment and Special Teams
Ohio State is playing its first true road night game of this stretch at the Coliseum, a venue that can be loud and historically difficult for visiting teams. The Buckeyes have been efficient on the road so far this season, but the combination of a new quarterback and a prime-time setting adds variables. USC is 4-1 at home this year, though the Trojans have struggled against the spread at home. Crowd noise can affect communication, particularly for a freshman or sophomore quarterback calling protections and making pre-snap adjustments.
Special teams also factor in. Both teams have reliable kickers in most situations, but field position and return units can swing momentum in a close game. Ohio State has been strong in limiting big returns defensively, while USC has shown the ability to create explosive plays through the air. Managing the kicking game and avoiding penalties in a hostile environment will be essential for the Buckeyes.
Broader Context
Ohio State’s defense has been the more consistent unit this season, ranking in the top 10 nationally in scoring defense and total defense. That unit gives the Buckeyes a margin for error even if the offense is not as efficient without Sayin. USC’s offense has the tools to score in bunches, as shown by multiple games with 30 or more points, but the Trojans’ defense has allowed opponents to move the ball at times. The recent loss at Wisconsin, in which USC managed only seven points, highlighted the risk if the passing game is slowed.
Ohio State remains favored, and models give the Buckeyes a high win probability. The quarterback change and the road setting introduce enough uncertainty that USC can stay competitive if Maiava has time and the Trojans limit big plays. The five matchups above—quarterback play, the passing attack against Ohio State’s secondary, the running game, pass rush, and the road environment—will largely determine whether the Buckeyes pull away or whether the game remains tight into the fourth quarter.
