Astronomical Expectations Return to Austin
The Texas Longhorns are entering the 2026 season with sky-high expectations for the second consecutive year, once again being tabbed as one of the favorites to bring home a national championship trophy. But before Texas can even think about competing for a title, the program has to survive one of the most brutal regular-season schedules in the country one that includes a real chance at a return trip to the SEC Championship after missing out last season.
With a roster loaded with talent at nearly every position, what exactly should Texas fans expect from Steve Sarkisian’s team in 2026? Here’s a full breakdown of the Longhorns’ outlook at every stage of the season.
Texas’s Brutal 2026 Schedule
Any prediction for Texas starts with the schedule, and this year’s slate is about as difficult as they come. The Longhorns open the season with a marquee home matchup against Ohio State in Week 2, sandwiched around road trips to Tennessee and a neutral-site clash with Oklahoma in the annual Red River Rivalry. Later in the season, Texas faces a road trip to LSU under new head coach Lane Kiffin, along with the always-intense rivalry matchup against Texas A&M — a game that carries extra weight after Texas played spoiler to the Aggies’ unbeaten SEC record a season ago.
With the SEC now playing a nine-game conference schedule for the first time, Texas’s path through the season includes several of the conference’s toughest contenders. The good news for the Longhorns: outside of Georgia, most of the SEC’s other top contenders are already on the schedule, meaning a strong season could put Texas in position to control its own destiny down the stretch.
Final Record Prediction: 11-1
Going undefeated would be the ideal outcome for Texas, but with a schedule this stacked, the realistic expectation is that the Longhorns drop at least one game somewhere along the way. The bigger question is where that loss might come from a tone-setting home battle against Ohio State in Week 2, or a neutral-site slugfest with Oklahoma later in the year.
Those two matchups currently stand out as the toughest tests on paper, particularly with lingering uncertainty about just how strong LSU and Texas A&M will be by the time Texas faces them. Given that uncertainty working in the Longhorns’ favor, a double-digit win season looks very much within reach — landing the final record prediction at 11-1.
Can Texas Get Back to Atlanta?
After missing the SEC Championship Game entirely last season, a return trip to Atlanta is squarely on the radar for this Texas team. With most of the conference’s top contenders already on the schedule Georgia being the notable exception a strong season should be enough to put Texas back in position to represent its division in the title game.
Dropping one game along the way won’t necessarily be fatal, especially since every team in the conference is dealing with its own difficult schedule this season under the new nine-game format. Given the Longhorns’ talent level and the number of ranked opponents already on their own schedule, the prediction here is that Texas finds its way back to the SEC Championship Game.
College Football Playoff Fate: Back in the Bracket
The ultimate goal for Texas remains a return trip to the College Football Playoff, and the season-opening gauntlet against Ohio State should offer an early, meaningful signal about how realistic that goal is. With an 11-1 final record projection, Texas would be in strong position to punch its ticket back into the playoff field and given just how difficult the Longhorns’ schedule is shaping up to be, even a two-loss version of this team could be considered too tough a resume to leave out of the bracket.
Why This Texas Team Looks Different Than a Year Ago
Much of the optimism around Texas in 2026 traces back to quarterback Arch Manning’s dramatic improvement down the stretch of last season. After a rocky start to his first year as the full-time starter completing just over 61% of his passes for the season — Manning caught fire late, throwing 11 touchdowns against a single interception over his final five games while adding four rushing touchdowns and even a receiving score. That surge culminated in Texas ending Texas A&M’s unbeaten conference record and cruising past Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.
Rather than stand pat, Sarkisian went all in on building the most explosive offense possible around his now-proven quarterback. Texas added major transfer talent at the skill positions, including wide receiver Cam Coleman from Auburn, running backs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers, and offensive tackle Melvin Siani, while also landing five-star freshman receiver Jermaine Bishop Jr. It’s widely considered the best group of skill-position talent Texas has ever surrounded a quarterback with, giving Manning far more margin for error than he had a season ago.
The clearest question mark remains on defense, where Texas will lean on new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp to elevate a unit that ranked outside the top 40 nationally in defensive success rate a year ago. If that side of the ball can round into form, Texas has the pieces to match its lofty preseason expectations from start to finish.
Final Thoughts
Texas enters 2026 with as much talent and as much pressure as any program in the country, and the schedule will make sure none of that is easy to prove. But between Arch Manning’s late-season breakout, a completely retooled group of offensive weapons, and a favorable path through most of the SEC’s top contenders, the pieces are in place for the Longhorns to finally deliver on back-to-back years of championship-level expectations. An 11-1 record, a return trip to the SEC Championship, and a spot back in the College Football Playoff field would go a long way toward proving that Texas’s talent and its results are finally matching up.
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