Final score prediction: Ohio State 42, Maryland 10. Jeremiah Smith scores three touchdowns.
I’ll say it up front: this is going to be a tough match for a while, and then Ohio State is going to win it going away. Maryland will come to fight. The Buckeyes are fifth in the nation at 4-1, and by the end of the day the gap between the two teams will show on the scoreboard.
Here’s how I see it playing out.
Setup: A Good Team Walking Into a Trap
Ohio State has gone mostly according to plan this season. The one blemish was Texas, where the Buckeyes took a 20-point lead into the fourth quarter and let it slip away. A loss like that stays with a team. It also teaches a team that no lead is safe and no opponent can be treated casually.
That lesson matters today, because this is the kind of game that looks easy on paper and gets uncomfortable fast. Maryland has nothing to lose, a real pass rush, and an Ohio State roster with a few question marks. That’s the recipe for a trap game. The Buckeyes know it. The question is whether they play like it from the opening snap.
I think they do.
Maryland’s Game Plan: Hit Sayin and Cover Smith
If I’m coaching Maryland, my plan is simple: make Julian Sayin uncomfortable and take Jeremiah Smith away.
The first part is realistic. Maryland has 14 sacks, third in the Big Ten, and Sayin was sacked four times against Iowa. If right tackle Dillon Phillips is out or limited, the Terrapins will see a chance to get home early and often.
The second part is where the plan gets hard. With Devin McCuin and Brandon Iniss both questionable, Maryland can load up on Smith with extra coverage and dare someone else to beat them. It’s a smart idea. It’s also the kind of idea that works for a quarter and falls apart over four.
The Smith Factor: Three Touchdowns
This is the part of my prediction I feel strongest about. Jeremiah Smith scores three touchdowns today.
You can’t double-team a receiver like him all game. Defenses can try to bracket him, roll safeties his way, and bump him at the line, and he’ll still find ways to win. He wins contested catches. He turns short throws into big gains. And when a defense finally slips, he punishes it.
I expect a big receiving day too, something in the neighborhood of 120 to 150 yards, with at least one touchdown coming on a play where Maryland did everything right and he still won it.
There’s also a ripple effect. If Maryland sends extra help his way, the other receivers get one-on-one chances. If they don’t, Smith eats. Either way, the defense loses.
Sayin and the Offensive Line: The Real Swing Factor
If there’s one thing that could make this game closer than I’m predicting, it’s the offensive line.
Sayin has been having a strong season, and the offense thrives when he has time to throw. The Iowa game showed what happens when pressure gets through. The plan was to have him extend plays with his legs, but that only works if the line gives him the first couple of seconds.
My read: the line holds up better than Maryland hopes. Ohio State builds an early lead, and a lead changes everything for a pass rush. Once a defense is chasing the game, it can’t pin its ears back as freely. Draws, screens and quick throws start to work, and the sack numbers matter less.
The Defense: Stay Disciplined and Finish
On the other side, Christian Alliegro is the key name to watch. He’s the starting linebacker and third on the team in tackles with 20, and he’s listed among the injury concerns. If he plays, the defense is steady in the middle. If he doesn’t, someone has to step up.
Either way, I expect Ohio State’s defense to do what it needs to do. Maryland doesn’t need to score 30 to be in this game. It needs a couple of early stops and a score or two. I think the Buckeyes deny them that, give up a field goal and a late touchdown at most, and keep the game under control.
My Quarter-by-Quarter Prediction
Running score after each quarter, with what I expect to happen:
| Quarter | Ohio State | Maryland | What happens |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7 | 3 | Both teams feel each other out. Maryland’s pass rush shows up, and Ohio State answers with a scoring drive late. Smith gets his first touchdown. |
| 2nd | 21 | 3 | Maryland’s coverage on Smith gets stretched, and the Buckeyes score twice. Smith’s second touchdown comes before halftime. |
| 3rd | 35 | 3 | The pass rush loses its bite as the lead grows. Smith’s third touchdown puts the game out of reach. |
| 4th | 42 | 10 | Ohio State adds one more score, and Maryland gets a late touchdown against a rotated defense. |
What Could Go Wrong
I’m confident, but I’m not naive. Here’s what could make me wrong:
- The offensive line struggles. If Phillips is out and the pocket collapses, Sayin could have a rough day.
- Smith gets taken away. If Maryland plays something close to a perfect coverage game, the offense has to find answers elsewhere.
- The Texas problem returns. A big lead that evaporates would be a warning sign for the weeks ahead.
- Another injury. A tough stretch is coming, and one more key player going down would hurt.
None of these is my base case, but any one of them could turn 42-10 into a one-score game.
Why It Matters for the Bigger Picture
This game isn’t just about today. After Maryland, the Buckeyes face Indiana, a bye, USC, and then Oregon. That’s a long stretch of top-level opponents, and Ohio State needs to come out of this game healthy and confident.
A comfortable win with starters resting late is worth more than a closer win that costs a key player. That’s why I want to see this one decided early. If the Buckeyes build a big lead and then ease off, they head into the next challenge with a clear head and a full roster.
Final Prediction
Maryland will fight, and for a while it’ll feel like a real game. Then Jeremiah Smith takes over, the line settles in, and the defense closes the door.
Ohio State 42, Maryland 10.
Three touchdowns for Smith. A big receiving day. And a Buckeyes team that shows it has what it takes to chase the national championship.
Do you agree with the score? Drop your own prediction in the comments.
