My prediction is Ohio State 21, Indiana 7, with Jeremiah Smith scoring two touchdowns. No. 4 Ohio State (5-1) visits No. 5 Indiana (6-0) on Saturday, October 17, at noon ET on FOX. Oddsmakers have Ohio State as a small favorite, around 3.5 points, with a total near 51.
The score is bold, because Indiana averages about 40 points a game. Here’s the case for it, and every path the Buckeyes have to win.
The Matchup by the Numbers
| Ohio State | Indiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per game | 42.7 | 40.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.2 | 11.8 |
| Total offense (yards per game) | 503.5 | 462.7 |
| Passing offense | 337.8 | 241.3 |
| Rushing offense | 165.7 | 221.3 |
| Total defense (yards allowed) | 246.8 | 263.5 |
| Third-down conversion | 45.2% | 45.3% |
Indiana wins on the ground and Ohio State wins through the air. Ohio State has scored at least 31 points in every Big Ten game, and it has averaged 44.2 points since the loss at Texas.
Path 1: Feed Jeremiah Smith
Indiana’s biggest weakness is its secondary. It ranks 64th nationally in passing yards allowed per game, and Nebraska found holes against it. Smith has 916 yards and 11 touchdowns, and he caught eight passes for 144 yards in last year’s title game. If Smith scores twice, that’s 14 points and a record.
Path 2: Protect Julian Sayin
Indiana has 20 sacks in six games. With Phillip Daniels back at right tackle and Gabe VanSickle at guard, the line is closer to whole, though Austin Siereveld is out. Clean pockets let Sayin do what he’s done in conference play: 60-of-84 for 933 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Path 3: Win Third and Fourth Down
Indiana allows only 31.8% of third downs to be converted. Ohio State has been solid at 52.5% in Big Ten games and 71.4% on fourth down. Staying on schedule keeps Indiana’s pass rush from pinning its ears back.
Path 4: Keep the Run Game Honest
Indiana allows 75 rushing yards a game, but Nebraska ran for 128 on it, and Ohio State ran for 207 against Maryland. With Ja’Kobi Jackson out, Bo Jackson returns to a starting role. Even four yards a carry keeps the play-action game working.
Path 5: Stop Indiana’s Ground Game
Indiana rushes for 221.3 yards a game, but Ohio State allows just 96.2 on the ground. Make Josh Hoover throw. Nebraska held Indiana to 65 rushing yards, and without the ground game, Indiana relies on Nick Marsh and Charlie Becker.
Path 6: Pressure Hoover
Hoover has been sacked eight times in the last five games, and Indiana ranks 61st in sack rate. Ohio State’s pass rush hasn’t been elite, but Matt Patricia’s defense allows the fewest yards per pass attempt in the FBS (4.76). Coverage plus a little pressure is a strong formula.
Path 7: Limit Big Plays
Marsh scored from 75 and 44 yards against Nebraska, and Indiana ranks third in yards per play (7.82). Ohio State’s secondary has allowed 150.7 passing yards a game, eighth nationally. No explosive plays means Indiana has to drive the length of the field.
Path 8: Win the Turnover Battle
Day says Indiana takes care of the football. Ohio State’s two turnovers against Maryland, including a pick-six, can’t repeat.
Path 9: Play Disciplined Football
Ohio State had eight penalties against Maryland. Indiana committed 11 against Northwestern. Clean football flips field position.
Path 10: Start Fast
Indiana has allowed only 10 first-half points in three Big Ten games, and it didn’t trail all season until Nebraska. Ohio State has scored a touchdown in the final 30 seconds of the first half in six straight games. An early lead puts Indiana in unfamiliar territory.
Health Check
Receivers Brandon Inniss and Devin McCuin, linebacker Christian Alliegro and nickelback Jay Timmons aren’t on Wednesday’s report, which suggests they return. Siereveld and Ja’Kobi Jackson are out. Three more reports come before kickoff.
How 24-7 Could Happen
Three touchdowns and a field goal, including two from Smith, and one Indiana touchdown. That requires Ohio State’s defense to hold an offense that averages about 40 points to a season-low. It’s a big ask, but Ohio State has limited its last two opponents to 14 and 16 points.
Reality Check: What Could Go Wrong
- Indiana’s finishing ability. The Hoosiers have won 22 straight and rally late.
- The trenches. Ohio State’s line has allowed 11 sacks in six games.
- Experience. Indiana is 27-0 against unranked opponents under Cignetti, though it hasn’t played a ranked team this year.
- History. Everyone assumed Ohio State would win the last meeting, too.
The odds reflect a close game: ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a 52% chance to win, and some analysts lean toward a lower-scoring game. A 31-point total is well below the market’s 51, so 24-7 is an optimistic call.
My Take
I’m backing Ohio State. The Buckeyes have the best player on the field, the stronger passing game, and Indiana’s weakest unit, the secondary, faces their strongest. If the line holds, 24-7 isn’t out of reach.
Odds and projections are for context only, not betting advice.
