Ohio State won its Big Ten opener 42-19. Jeremiah Smith had 12 catches, 217 yards, and four touchdowns. Julian Sayin threw for 367 yards and four scores. The Buckeyes moved up two spots in the AP Poll, to No. 5.
ESPN’s computer did the opposite.
The Football Power Index, which had kept Ohio State at No. 1 even after the one-point road loss at Texas, dropped the Buckeyes to No. 3 after the Illinois win. Georgia is now No. 1. Notre Dame is No. 2. Texas sits at No. 4. Miami is No. 5.
That is the ranking that has Buckeye fans asking the obvious question: why does a better game after Texas get punished?
What ESPN’s computer actually did
FPI is not the AP Poll. It is a projection system. ESPN describes it as a measure of team strength meant to predict how a team will play the rest of the season. Rankings update daily from simulations, results so far, and remaining schedule.
After Week 4:
- Georgia (4-0)
- Notre Dame (4-0)
- Ohio State (3-1)
- Texas (4-0)
- Miami (4-0)
Georgia jumped after a 41-13 win over Oklahoma. Notre Dame jumped after a 49-10 road win at Purdue. Ohio State fell two spots despite a 23-point home win.
Human voters went the other way. Texas is No. 1 in the AP Poll. Ohio State rose to No. 5. The Coaches Poll has the Buckeyes at No. 6.
So this is not “the country dropped Ohio State.” This is one model doing it.
Why the computer moved them — and why fans think it is wrong
The case FPI is making is the defense.
Illinois put up 462 yards and about 200 on the ground. The Illini averaged 6.0 yards per carry. They hit 15 plays of 10-plus yards and eight of 20-plus. Ohio State still won 42-19 and kept Illinois out of the end zone enough to control the game. But a championship defense is not supposed to look that leaky at home against a 2-2 team.
That is a real issue. It is not made up.
The case that the drop is unfair is also real.
Ohio State just played its best offensive game of the season. Smith looked like a Heisman favorite. Sayin answered the Texas tape. The Buckeyes opened Big Ten play with a statement win after the only loss on the résumé — a 24-23 road game at Texas that the Longhorns needed a late comeback to steal.
FPI kept Ohio State No. 1 after that Texas loss. Then it dropped them after they responded. That sequence is what feels backwards to fans. A computer that stayed loyal through a collapse in Austin should not treat a 42-19 win like a warning label.
Georgia and Notre Dame are 4-0. That matters in a predictive model. Undefeated teams with strong recent results will rise. Fair enough. What does not sit right is treating Ohio State’s Illinois tape as more damaging than Texas’ one-score win over the Buckeyes was two weeks ago.
If the computer is forecasting the rest of the year, Ohio State still has a path through the Big Ten and into the playoff. One messy defensive afternoon should adjust the rating. It should not look like a demotion for winning.
FPI vs. the polls: two different jobs
This is the part most ranking fights skip.
- AP and Coaches: résumé, eyeball test, “who would you pick today?”
- FPI: how good will you be next month, based on efficiency and projected remaining games?
FPI can be useful. It can also look tone-deaf in September, when one 462-yard afternoon outweighs a Heisman receiver going nuclear and a team bouncing back from its only loss.
Ohio State can be both things at once: a playoff favorite with an elite offense, and a team whose defense has to clean up tackling and explosive plays before November. Those can live in the same paragraph. A two-spot drop to No. 3 after a blowout win is the part that feels like the model is grading the wrong test.
What actually matters from here
The next game is bigger than FPI. Iowa is 4-0 and just beat Michigan. That is a road test that will tell more about Ohio State than any Sunday computer dump.
If the defense tightens up, the FPI bump will come back. If Illinois-style yards keep showing up against better offenses, the computer will look smart and the playoff path gets narrower.
Until then, the fan argument is simple: Ohio State played better after Texas, won by 23, and still got knocked out of ESPN’s No. 1 spot. Georgia earned its rise. Notre Dame earned its rise. Dropping
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