No. 3 Ohio State (6-1) visits No. 16 USC (6-1) on Saturday, October 31, at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC. My prediction is Ohio State 24, USC 21. The Buckeyes are a touchdown favorite, but they’re playing without Julian Sayin, who’s out indefinitely. True freshman Luke Fahey is the frontrunner to start his first game, in his home state, against a USC team averaging 36.4 points.
Ohio State vs. USC: Game Details
| Date | Saturday, October 31, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET / 4:30 p.m. PT |
| TV | NBC |
| Location | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum |
| Radio | 97.1 The Fan and the Ohio State Sports Network |
Kickoff time around the world: 6:30 p.m. Central, 11:30 p.m. in the UK, and 2:30 a.m. Sunday, November 1, in Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
What Happened to Julian Sayin?
Sayin hurt his throwing shoulder in the fourth quarter of Ohio State’s 19-15 win at Indiana. Indiana’s Mario Landino hit him on a sack and forced a fumble, and Sayin left in a sling. Before the injury, he ranked third nationally with 2,007 passing yards and 19 touchdowns.
Ryan Day first said “several weeks,” then on Tuesday upgraded it to “indefinitely.” He said the team is planning for Sayin to be unavailable for the regular season and the postseason, and that a return this fall is doubtful.
Fahey vs. St. Clair: Who Starts at Quarterback?
| Luke Fahey | Tavien St. Clair | |
|---|---|---|
| Class | True freshman | Redshirt sophomore |
| Recruiting | Three-star from California | Five-star from Ohio |
| 2026 so far | 9-of-11, 203 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs in the blowouts, then 0-of-2 vs. Indiana | Reported 5-for-7, 52 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT |
| Coaches’ take | Day: “confidence, athletic ability”; Arthur Smith: “pro mindset” | Smith: “a big arm” |
Day says both quarterbacks are getting first-team reps during the bye week. Fahey is ahead, but Day will make the final call next week with input from Arthur Smith and quarterbacks coach Billy Fessler. He said he’ll “play the guy that gives us the best chance to win.”
At Indiana, Fahey’s first snap came on second-and-28 after Sayin’s fumble. He scrambled for 8 yards and drew a late-hit penalty, but Ohio State then punted.
How Dangerous Is USC?
The Trojans are good, and their offense can score on anyone.
- Record: 6-1, with the only loss 41-27 to Oregon at home. They beat Penn State 31-23 on the road last week.
- Quarterback Jayden Maiava: 67.9% completions, 2,045 yards, 18 touchdowns, 3 interceptions.
- Offense: 36.4 points per game and 310.1 passing yards per game, among the top 11 nationally.
- Efficiency: USC leads the Big Ten in third-down conversion rate (51.2%) and fourth-down conversion rate (75%).
- Weakness: The defense is 108th nationally against the pass (239.0 yards per game), under first-year coordinator Gary Patterson.
- Strength: The defensive line, led by true freshman Luke Wafle, Jide Abasiri and Jahkeem Stewart.
The Matchup: Where It’s Won
Ohio State’s offense vs. USC’s defense. USC’s weak secondary is where Jeremiah Smith, who has 916 yards and 11 touchdowns, can feast. But the line is strong, and Day and Arthur Smith say they’ll lean on the run game with Bo Jackson. The question is whether a young quarterback can hit open throws against a strong pass rush.
USC’s offense vs. Ohio State’s defense. It’s strength against strength. Ohio State entered the Indiana game allowing about 150 passing yards a game, eighth nationally, and has one of the best pass defenses in the FBS. If the Buckeyes slow Maiava, the game stays close and within Ohio State’s reach.
Odds Snapshot
DraftKings lists Ohio State around -7, with a moneyline near -250 and a total of 53.5. Lines can move after the quarterback news, so check closer to kickoff. Odds are for context only, not betting advice.
Five Keys for Ohio State
- Protect the football. A freshman can’t afford turnovers against USC’s explosive offense.
- Run the ball. It shortens the game and keeps Maiava off the field.
- Get Jeremiah Smith the ball early. USC’s secondary is the target.
- Win third down. USC converts over half of its third downs, so Ohio State’s defense has to get off the field.
- Don’t panic if it’s close. Ohio State has won tight games all season.
My Prediction
I’ll take Ohio State 24, USC 21. The Buckeyes’ defense and run game give them a path to win, and USC’s secondary gives Smith room to make plays. But a road start in primetime for a freshman, against an offense that scores almost 37 points a game, is a real risk. I’d expect a game that comes down to the fourth quarter, so Ohio State might win without covering the seven-point spread.
If Fahey struggles early, expect St. Clair to get a look, which has happened before.
Can Ohio State beat USC without Sayin? Drop your score in the comments, and subscribe for my game-day breakdown.
