Ohio State opens the 2026 season next Saturday against Ball State in Columbus. While the focus remains on the immediate opener, On3’s Brett McMurphy has already released full-season predictions that place the Buckeyes in the thick of the College Football Playoff.
McMurphy’s projection has Ohio State earning the No. 1 overall seed — and ultimately falling short in the national championship game.
What Happened
In McMurphy’s simulated bracket, the Buckeyes secure the top seed and a Rose Bowl berth against the eighth-seeded Texas Longhorns, setting up a potential Week 2 rematch.
If Ohio State advances past Texas, the path continues through the Sugar Bowl against Texas Tech after an opening-round win over Mountain West champion UNLV and a quarterfinal victory over fourth-seeded Notre Dame.
The national title game would then pit the Buckeyes against Oregon in what McMurphy frames as a potential trilogy matchup, following a regular-season meeting in Columbus and a possible Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis.
In this scenario, Oregon coach Dan Lanning’s Ducks would finally claim their first national championship, leaving Ohio State on the losing end.
Why This Matters
Two years ago, Ohio State ended a long title drought by beating Notre Dame. Last season brought a setback in the Cotton Bowl against Miami. Entering 2026, expectations have reset around another serious national championship push.
A title-game loss under these circumstances would leave Ryan Day with one ring instead of two in a three-year span. It would also deny wide receiver Jeremiah Smith the chance to win multiple titles in a short window, adding an emotional layer for the program and its fans.
Key Details Fans Need to Know
McMurphy’s projection assumes Ohio State navigates a difficult regular-season schedule and emerges as the top overall seed. The hypothetical path includes high-stakes games against Texas, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, and ultimately Oregon.
The narrative centers on the weight of expectations. Day has guided the Buckeyes to consistent contention, but another near-miss on the biggest stage would invite renewed scrutiny of his postseason record despite the 2024 championship.
For players like Smith and the rest of a roster built to compete at the highest level, falling one game short after reaching Las Vegas would feel especially difficult.
What Happens Next
These remain early predictions. The season has not yet begun, and countless variables injuries, execution, and the performance of other contenders — will shape the actual playoff field.
Ohio State’s immediate task is handling Ball State before turning attention to a challenging non-conference and Big Ten slate. How the Buckeyes perform in September and October will determine whether McMurphy’s optimistic seeding has any chance of materializing.
The Bigger Picture
Predictions like this highlight both the height of expectations in Columbus and the fine margins that separate champions from runners-up. Reaching the national title game would still represent a successful season by most measures. Falling short in that final game, however, would leave a lingering sense of what might have been particularly for a coach and program that have already tasted the ultimate success.
Whether McMurphy’s bracket proves prophetic or completely off-base will be decided on the field over the next four-plus months.
13. FAQ Section
What is Brett McMurphy’s prediction for Ohio State?
He projects the Buckeyes as the No. 1 overall seed that reaches the national championship game before losing to Oregon.
Who would Ohio State face in McMurphy’s simulated bracket?
Texas in the Rose Bowl, Texas Tech in the Sugar Bowl, Notre Dame in the quarterfinals, and Oregon in the title game.
Why would a title loss be especially difficult for Ryan Day?
It would leave him with one championship instead of two in a three-year span and add to the narrative around postseason results.
Does this prediction account for the regular-season Ohio State-Oregon game?
Yes. McMurphy frames the title game as a potential trilogy after a regular-season meeting and a possible Big Ten Championship rematch.
When does Ohio State’s season begin?
Next Saturday against Ball State in Columbus.
Reader Question
If Ohio State reached the national championship and lost to Oregon, would you still view 2026 as a successful season under Ryan Day?
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